Palestinian shock: President says he wants to quit

Middle East peace hopes were in disarray after Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian leader, announced he would stand down within weeks


In this photo released by the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas chairs a meeting of the Fatah party's executive committee in the West Bank city of Ramallah, Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009. Aides say Abbas has told political allies he won't run in January elections.


Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas pushed Mideast peace prospects into unknown territory Thursday, announcing he doesn't want another term and opening the way to a succession battle that could play into the hands of his rival, the militant Hamas.

But it also could boost the prospects of a popular candidate who reportedly wants to run for the presidency from his Israeli prison cell.

Abbas blamed his decision on the stalemate in peace talks, but the wording of his televised speech raised speculation that it was not final and could be a tactic for pushing Israel and the U.S. toward a larger compromise.

He said only that it was "desire not to run in the upcoming elections" which are set for January but could be delayed, extending his current term indefinitely.

Abbas took over after the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004, and Western leaders have come to see him as a symbol of moderation. Although criticized as indecisive and associated with the corruption-tainted old guard of his Fatah party, he has given free rein to his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, to reform the West Bank's economy and boost its police, which has resulted in a limited economic upturn.

But the stalemate with Israel overshadows all, and Fatah activists say the party is in a panic, fearing a fragmented slate of candidates that would hand victory to Hamas.

Late last month, Abbas told U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton that he would not run, but recanted after President Barack Obama called him and expressed his commitment to Mideast peacemaking, Abbas' aides said. A senior Palestinian official told The Associated Press that Abbas informed other Fatah leaders of his latest decision several days ago but didn't tell Obama.

Insiders say he was disheartened by Washington's refusal to press Israel harder for a freeze on West Bank settlement construction, and that this week's visit by Clinton, when she appeared to side with Israel over the settlement issue, was the last straw.

Abbas has insisted that he won't resume negotiations until Israel stops all construction.

If he were to concede on that issue, Fatah could lose the election. If that happened, the international community would have no one to deal with but Hamas, which denies Israel's right to exist and rejects the two-state solution endorsed by Fatah.

The most attractive candidate to replace 74-year-old Abbas would likely be Marwan Barghouti, 49, who was jailed for life in 2002 for his involvement in fatal Palestinian attacks.

Activists say Barghouti, the top West Bank Fatah official until his arrest, is determined to run from prison. The charismatic Palestinian was once a favorite of Israeli peace activists but turned increasingly militant. His refusal to recognize the Israeli court's right to try him, and his defiant gestures and smiles for the cameras, heightened his popularity among Palestinians.

He ran for president from his cell in 2004 but withdrew under pressure from Fatah leaders. This time, associates say, he is determined to stay in the contest.

Barghouti's incarceration could work both for and against him. It might be difficult for him to campaign from a jail cell, but his nomination could force his release. Also, imprisonment has shielded him from blame for the absence of a peace accord with Israel, a shattered West Bank economy and Hamas in power in Gaza.

Yossi Sarid, an Israeli former lawmaker identified with the peace movement, said Israel and the U.S. humiliated Abbas, leading to his decision. "This means that we are probably entering a terrible period where the extremists will run the show," Sarid said.

In case Abbas steps down, Fatah insiders are promoting Nasser Al-Kidwa, 50, as a candidate. He has served as the Palestinian representative at the U.N., is not linked with the corruption that bedevils the party, and has the additional benefit of being Arafat's nephew.

Another potential candidate is Mohammed Dahlan, 48, a one-time Fatah strongman in Gaza. He was recently elected to the top Fatah policy-making body, but he is blamed by many for losing Gaza to Hamas, and is tainted by allegations of corruption.

Hamas spokesman Taher Nunu said he didn't believe Abbas really meant to step down. "His speech wasn't for the Palestinians alone," he said. "It was for the United States and the international community, so they will give him more support in the elections."

After Abbas' speech, Clinton praised his leadership in working toward the creation of a Palestinian state next to Israel.

Speaking to reporters in Washington, she ignored a question about whether she would urge Abbas to stay on and saying only that she would go on working with him to advance peace.

he Palestinian leader is a vital US ally and just about the only official in the occupied territories with whom Israel is prepared to negotiate.

But the White House has done him few favours of late.Just six weeks ago, much to the delight of the Obama administration, Mr Abbas was enjoying a surprising renaissance.

A successful congress of his Fatah party, which saw popular newcomers inducted into its hierarchy, and an impressive upswing in the economy had combined to convince many Palestinians to shift their support from the Islamists of Hamas to his moderate leadership.

Then, in the space of a few days last month, it all fell apart.

Under pressure from Washington, Mr Abbas agreed to withdraw his support for the Goldstone Report, which had controversially accused Israel of war crimes during its offensive against Hamas in Gaza nearly a year ago.

When ordinary Palestinians erupted in fury and many in his own party joined the barrage of criticism, Mr Abbas reversed his decision to the fury of Israel and the irritation of the United States.

Mr Abbas's last hope of mollifying his people was to achieve a victory in his demand for a freeze of all Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in exchange for a resumption of talks with Israel.

The United States initially appeared to back his position but suddenly softened its stance and lent support for an Israeli offer to simply "restrict" settlements.

Already badly weakened by the Goldstone debacle, Mr Abbas was in no position to countenance anything less than a total freeze.

Mr Abbas was marooned again and the peace process stalled.

The United States will now be praying he can be persuaded to change his mind.

Mr Abbas is known for his commitment to peace even when many of those around him are not.

He was instrumental in persuading the PLO to begin talks with Israel two decades ago and was one of the most important engineers of the Oslo Accords in 1993.

With the exception of Salam Fayyad, the reformist and pro-American prime minister, the peace making credentials of other Palestinian leaders are at best open to question.

But, however much the Americans might wish it, Mr Fayyad is not thought to have sufficient political support to win an election.

If Mr Abbas cannot have his mind changed, President Obama's ambition of completing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations within two years will increasingly look like wishful thinking.

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