Parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea Evidence overwhelmingly proves North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship.The marking '1 beon' ('No.1' in English) is written on parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea
A real-size blueprint of a torpedo above torpedo parts salvaged from the Yellow Sea during a press conference at the Defence Ministry in Seoul this morning
North Korea threatened 'all-out war' if Seoul retaliates for the torpedo attack which sank a South Korean warship.
Pyongyang made the threat yesterday as it dismissed a report by an international team of specialists that found a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine sank the 1,200-tonne Cheonan in March, killing 46 sailors.
Investigators said they had discovered part of the torpedo used in the attack on the sea floor and it carried lettering that matched a North Korean design.
The sinking is one of South Korea's worst naval tragedies and the country's outraged president Lee Myung Bak promised 'stern action' against the North, calling an emergency meeting of his security staff for today.
A giant offshore crane salvages the bow section of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan off Baengnyeong Island shortly after the sinking
Parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea Evidence overwhelmingly proves North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship
South Korean Navy rear admiral Park Jung-Soo talks in front of the wreckage of the naval vessel Cheonan in Pyeongtaek
Soldiers stand guard near the wreckage of the naval vessel Cheonan, which was sunk on March 26 near the maritime border
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak talks with U.S. President Barrack Obama. Mr Obama expressed full support for South Korea's handling of the March 26 sinking
State trip: North Korea's 'supreme leader' Kim Jong Il is pictured during a recent visit to China. Analysts speculated that the trip was cut short after Kim's hosts warned him over the torpedo strike
Protesters break a mock North Korean missile with portraits of the North's founder Kim Il-sung, his son and current leader Kim Jong-il and what they say is Kim Jong-il's son Kim Jong-un at a protest in front of the Defence Ministry building in Seoul
This map shows the Northern Limit Line between North and South Korea
The North responded by saying any provocative acts would be met with a 'merciless strong physical blow'.
As China urged both countries to show restraint, the White House warned the sinking was an 'act of aggression' that challenged peace.
The U.S. State Department said it was an 'unprovoked and unwarranted act' for which there will 'definitely be consequences'.
'Clearly this was a serious provocation by North Korea and there will definitely be consequences because of what North Korea has done,' a department spokesman said.
Britain's new Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned the attack and its 'total indifference to human life'.
The ship was on a routine patrol in the Yellow Sea, near Baengnyeong Island, off the North Korean coast near the dispute maritime border, when it exploded and sank.
The investigation led by British, U.S., Swedish and Australian experts, who collected evidence from the seabed, the wreckage of the ship and 58 survivors, said: 'The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired from a North Korean submarine.
'There is no other plausible explanation.'
Technically, the two countries remain at war and the release of the report is certain to increase tension on the divided Korean peninsula, where the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, rather than a peace treaty.
The land border is the world's most heavily armed.
In an immediate response, Pyongyang declared: 'The all-out war to be undertaken by us will be a sacred war involving the whole nation, all the people and the whole state.'
The North also warned the South against any provocative acts near the border in the aftermath of the sinking, warning it would react with an 'unlimited retaliatory blow'.
Financial markets in Seoul showed little reaction to the widely anticipated findings but were watching nervously for any serious escalation in tensions.
'The key is what kind of measures South Korea will take and how North Korea will react to them,' said Choi Seong-lak, an analyst at SK Securities.
'If things become violent it will affect foreign investors, but for today the impact from the result itself will be limited.'
International condemnation was immediate, with the stark exception of China, which analysts say is desperate to avoid any action that might destablise its reclusive neighbour and lead to a spill-out into in its territory.
A senior South Korean government official said previously that the attack appeared to have been in revenge for a firefight near the disputed North-South border late last year in which the North's navy was humiliated.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the contents of the South Korean investigation deeply troubling.
Both the United States and Britain gave their backing to the findings, with the White House calling it an act of aggression that was another sign of the North's unacceptable behaviour.
Japan ruled out the resumption of nuclear disarmament talks by five regional powers and the North, and said Washington shared its view that such negotiations aimed at aiding Pyongyang in return for a promise to drop its nuclear arms were unthinkable.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu urged both sides on the divided Korean peninsula to exercise restraint, and said Beijing would make its own assessment of the South Korean investigation.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will hold an emergency meeting of his National Security Council tomorrow.
His government has already made clear it has no plans for a retaliatory strike but will be pressing the international community to take action, probably more sanctions, against the North.
'We will be taking firm, responsive measures against the North, and through international cooperation, we have to make the North admit its wrongdoing and come back as a responsible member of the international community,' Lee told Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
The report, announced in a nationally televised news conference, said intelligence had shown that North Korean submarines were likely in operation near the scene of the sinking.
'The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine,' it said.
The issue has plunged already icy relations between the two Koreas deeper into the freezer.
North Korea said the South's conservative government was using the incident for political gain and to further undermine ties between the two Koreas, which have yet to sign a formal peace treaty to end their 1950-53 war.
'Our army and people will promptly react to any 'punishment' and 'retaliation' and to any 'sanctions' infringing upon our state interests with various forms of tough measures including an all-out war,' Pyongyang's National Defence Commission said in a typically florid statement.
The issue also puts China in a tricky spot. The host of on-again, off-again regional talks to rein in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme is the state's only major ally and is reluctant to penalise its government.
'It's going to be very, very difficult for China to navigate this one. The South Koreans are not particularly pleased about what China's doing,' said Charles Freeman, China expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Seoul is already upset with Beijing, a major trading partner, for hosting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on a rare trip abroad before the outcome of the investigation was announced.
But there have been media reports in the South that Chinese leaders may not have given the frail-looking Kim as much support as he wanted, speculating ties may now be starting to fray.
Paik Jin-hyun, a North Korea expert at Seoul National University, said tension between the two Koreas was inevitable.
'North Korea has given out war threats before and they are doing this now because the situation has become urgent for them. They will try to block sanctions at all costs. In this heightened state of affairs, provocations may occur.'
So, what happens next? How the West will deal with North Korea's deadly strike
How regional security dynamics could change in the wake of one of the deadliest strikes since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War and the likely reaction in financial markets:
SOUTH KOREA FLEXES ITS MUSCLES
Market players do not see the South planning a revenge strike on the North, but expect it to increase its military presence near the sea border where its ship went down. They worry that Seoul could then be more likely to attack North Korean vessels nearing the border, instead of issuing warnings first, as it has done before, leading to firefights that spook markets.
When news first broke of a possible North Korean link shortly after the vessel, the Cheonan, sank in late March, shares on Wall Street fell, the won dropped and the price to insure South Korean sovereign debt rose to 83 basis points from 78.
KEEPING A LID ON THE SITUATION
The South's main military ally, the United States, and the North's biggest backer, China, both see it in regional and global interests to prevent escalation and will pressure Seoul and Pyongyang to keep their tempers and armies under control.
However, the two global powers may not be able to prevent brief, live-fire exchanges between the rival Koreas who station more than 1 million troops near their border.
MISSILES, ARTILLERY AND TAUNTS
But North Korea may persist in sabre-rattling that often includes missile tests and threats to attack its capitalist neighbour as it tries to win concessions from global powers to decrease the threat it poses to the economically vibrant region.
Markets are long used to this and do not expect such moves to have any impact on trading. But any test firing of a longer-range ballistic missile designed to hit all of the South, most of Japan and U.S. military bases in Guam would increase long-term risks, and market jitters might ripple beyond the South or the region.
MORE U.N. SANCTIONS
The most feasible recourse for the South will be to enlist the Security Council for tougher sanctions against the North.
This will require convincing China to come on board, involving a long and intricate diplomatic manoeuvre to bring Beijing around to the argument that in spite of the risks of destabilising the leadership in Pyongyang, the world must not be left to watch the North get away with unprovoked.
NUCLEAR TEST
North Korea has tested nuclear devices twice. A third test would put it closer to having a working nuclear bomb, but it would also deplete its meagre supply of fissile material, which is thought to be enough for six to eight bombs.
Because a third nuclear test would not significantly alter market perceptions of risks, any negative impact on asset prices would again be relatively small and short-term.
Experts say even if North Korea develops a bomb, it has no practical means to deliver it.
SOUTH KOREA REVAMPS MILITARY POSTURE
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has been critical of the way the navy ship was vulnerable to a torpedo attack and how the military's chain of command in the immediate aftermath of the ship's sinking nearly broke down.
Lee has repeatedly said the military must build on the findings of the probe and improve its readiness. There has also been a call to change the military's focus from passive defence to pro-active deterrence.
Some analysts say such a change would not be effective against the North's military that itself stresses deterrence, raising the possibility of a direct confrontation.
South Korea will likely upgrade its joint training with U.S. forces, especially on defence against North Korean submarines and torpedo attacks, a move which is certain to provoke the North, which has said such drills are preparations for war.
WAR?
Straight after the South announced the findings of the probe on the sunk ship, North Korea's powerful National Defence Commission warned of war if Seoul retaliates with sanctions.
North Korea has on previous occasions made bellicose threats to turn Seoul into a 'sea of fire' and reduce the South to 'ashes'. But military experts do not believe the North's army is any match for the modern military forces of the South and its ally, the United States.
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