The H1N1 pandemic is over and the global outbreak turned out to be much less severe than was feared just over a year ago, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) said today.
WHO director-general Margaret Chan once again rebutted criticism that the United Nations agency had hyped the first pandemic in more than 40 years, whose mildness left some Western governments holding huge stockpiles of unused vaccines.
The Hong Kong public health expert said the world had been lucky the H1N1 virus had not mutated into a more deadly form and that a safe vaccine developed in record time remained effective against it.
“We are now moving into the post-pandemic period. The new H1N1 virus has largely run its course,” Chan (picture) said.
The swine flu pandemic, which has cost the nation more than £1billion, was declared over yesterday.
With the number of new cases plummeting, health chiefs announced the 24-hour flu helpline will close down next Thursday.
Critics said the seven-month outbreak had been mishandled by ministers and health officials, who had made a flawed assessment of the threat.
Swine flu has killed 411 Britons, with 124 more still in hospital - yet the 5,000 cases a week are far below the average for seasonal flu.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson had warned the pandemic might claim 65,000 lives and Health Secretary Andy Burnham said 100,000 could be struck down with the disease every day.
Total cases stand at 800,000 so far. Around the world, an estimated 14,000 deaths have been reported - a fraction of the number dying each year from ordinary flu.
The Government is thought to have ordered tens of millions of doses of vaccine.
So far only 4.25million have been administered to priority groups in England.
Sir Liam is still urging the vulnerable to have the jabs.
He insists the vast cost of tackling the pandemic has been justified, from the £1billion cost of vaccines and antivirals to the £10.4million spent on publicity.
The National Pandemic Flu Service, which cost a further £13.5million to run, allowed patients to bypass their GP and collect antiviral drugs after a telephone assessment.
Launched in July last year and employing 1,500 call centre staff, it led to 1.1million courses of antivirals being administered to patients - many of whom never had swine flu, according to research.
Anyone suspecting they have swine flu can still get antiviral drugs from their GP, while those in at-risk groups, including children under five, can receive a vaccination.
Sir Liam said: 'When the virus returns I would very much like to see young children already protected.
'From now on, most deaths from the pandemic flu virus should be regarded as potentially preventable.'
A spokesman for the Department of Health said: 'Our priority remains to vaccinate those most at risk from swine flu, as people are still in hospital from the virus.
'This is the first time we have had a vaccine to protect people while a pandemic virus has been circulating, so it has undoubtedly helped us save lives.'
However, the bumper revenues being reported by vaccine manufacturers - £4billion in windfall profits is predicted - have led to claims that the World Health Organisation fell under the influence of the industry when it declared a pandemic last June.
Matthew Elliott of the Taxpayers' Alliance said: 'The Government's reaction to swine flu has proved to be excessive and poorly managed.
'It beggars belief that they could have signed so many massive contracts with such a flawed assessment of the threat.'
But John Oxford, professor of virology at Bart's and The London Hospital, defended the flu strategy.
'Swine flu is behaving in a classic Darwinian fashion - the survival of the fittest - and has already displaced 98 per cent of the other flu viruses,' he said.
'My worry is that when it gets into the elderly next year, we could see many more deaths.
'We should be proud that Britain responded in a way that prevented many more cases and deaths.'
Over at last: The National Pandemic Flu Service will be stood down
1. High temperature, tiredness and lowered immunity
2. Headache, runny nose and sneezing
3. Sore throat
4. Shortness of breath
5. Loss of appetite, vomiting and diarrhoea
6. Aching muscles, limb and joint pain
Source: NHS
Dr Margaret Chan says avian flu is more of a problem than swine flu The head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned the global swine flu pandemic is not yet over and the virus could still mutate.
Dr Margaret Chan said it was important to "guard against complacency" despite signs the disease had peaked in North America and parts of Europe.
She said the virus was still active in countries including India and Egypt.
More than 11,500 people are believed to have died in more than 200 countries and territories because of swine flu.
However Dr Chan said it would take at least two years before a true death toll could be established.
The WHO's director general said the US, Canada and the UK were among those countries where the worst of the swine flu outbreak had appeared to have passed.
Danger
But she added: "It is too premature and too early for us to say we have come to an end of the pandemic influenza worldwide."
She said experts needed to continue monitoring the pandemic for another six to 12 months as it could mutate into a more dangerous strain.
"We will watch this virus with eagle's eyes," she said.
Dr Chan said it was fortunate the pandemic had been milder than expected.
"The fact that the long overdue influenza pandemic is so moderate in its impact is probably the best health news in a decade," she said.
Millions of people are believed to have recovered after contracting the virus and displaying few symptoms.
She said the demand for swine flu vaccinations in some European countries had been lower than expected and WHO was investigating whether superfluous vaccines could be sent to developing countries.
Dr Chan said drug makers and countries promised to donate nearly 190 million vaccine doses to WHO, with the first doses of the donated vaccines to be distributed in Azerbaijan, Mongolia and Afghanistan next month.
However she admitted she had not yet had a vaccine but said she would have it soon.
She said that although countries are now better prepared to cope with a global disease outbreak, people still had to be aware of the dangers of bird flu (H5N1).
She said this was more toxic and deadly than swine flu and that many countries remained ill-prepared for mass outbreaks of this virus.
"The world is not ready for a pandemic to be caused by H5N1," she said.
The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Tuesday that the A/H1N1 pandemic influenza is not over yet and the world needs to continue monitoring the evolution of the disease in 2010.
"It's too premature, too early for us to say we have come to an end of the pandemic influenza worldwide," Dr Margaret Chan told a news conference at the WHO headquarters in Geneva.
It's true that many countries in the northern hemisphere have passed the peak of the pandemic, notably in the United States, Canada and parts of Europe, but on the other hand there are still intensive influenza activities in countries like Egypt and India, Chan said.
The current pandemic caused by the H1N1 flu virus has been described as "moderate", but scientists cannot rule out the possibility that the virus could mutate and become more dangerous given the fact that flu virus are highly unpredictable.
So "it would be prudent and appropriate for the WHO together with our members’ states to continue to monitor the evolution of this pandemic for the next six to 12 months," Chan said.
So far nearly 12,000 people worldwide have been killed by the A/H1N1 influenza since the disease first emerged in April, according to an update released by the WHO last week.
But Chan noted that was a laboratory confirmed number, and it actually underestimates the real number of deaths caused by the pandemic.
"Many countries don't have the capacity for surveillance, for diagnosis and for confirmation. So there would be some deaths in some countries that are not reported," Chan said.
According to the WHO chief, the handling of the A/H1N1 pandemic has shown that the world is much better prepared now than five years ago to deal with such diseases. But there are still many gaps in the health systems in many countries.
She warned that the world is not yet ready for dealing with a pandemic caused by the H5N1 bird flu virus, which is "much more toxic and deadly" than the H1N1 virus.
"I just wish that the world does not have to deal with a pandemic ignited by a much more toxic and deadly virus, the avian flu virus H5N1," Chan said.
A dose of the experimental vaccine for the H1N1 flu virus is prepared at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, in August.-
Mass vaccination against swine flu may begin in Australia within a month, health officials said, heralding one of the world’s biggest public health exercises.
Two million doses from Melbourne-based CSL Ltd. will be ready by the end of this month, enabling the program to commence once interim data from human trials have been assessed in early September, Australia’s Health Minister Nicola Roxon said today.
- Australia has ordered 21 million doses of swine flu vaccine, one for each person, with mass vaccinations to start nationally within weeks, the government said on Thursday.
“It’s absolutely the right thing to do, no question,” Lorena Brown, professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Melbourne, said in a telephone interview. “We don’t have any preexisting immunity, with the exception of the elderly who might have a bit, so the vaccine will hopefully halt the spread.”
NORTHERN hemisphere countries have so far ordered more than one billion doses of H1N1 flu vaccine, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Tuesday, sparking warnings over shortages.
Some countries - notably Greece, The Netherlands, Canada and Israel - have ordered enough double doses to inoculate their entire populations.
Others, such as Germany, the United States, Britain and France, have put in orders that would cover between 30 and 78 per cent of people.
Pandemic vaccine orders put in by northern hemisphere countries stand at over one billion,' WHO spokesman Melinda Henry told AFP.
In July, the WHO said that the 25 drug companies which had announced their intention to manufacture vaccines could crank out up to 94 million doses per week starting in mid-October.
The global health body revised these numbers sharply downward when the top half-dozen vaccine makers - accounting for 85 per cent of global production - reported that the swine flu strains with which they were working did not reproduce as quickly as expected.
'The current vaccine strain would only yield 25 to 50 per cent' of the original estimate, as low as 23 million doses per week, said Ms Henry.
Clinical tests have not yet confirmed whether new strains under development will produce higher yields, and initial results for at least one, reviewed by WHO on Tuesday, are not encouraging.
The World Health Organisation stuck on Tuesday to its statement that about two billion people could catch H1N1 influenza by the time the flu pandemic ends.
"By the end of a pandemic, anywhere between 15-45 percent of a population will have been infected by the new pandemic virus," WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said in a statement.
The WHO's latest update on July 27 said a total of 816 people had died from H1N1, while the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases, including deaths, was 134,503 -- a figure well below the likely real total of infections which may already be in the millions, according to health experts.
WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said the agency hoped to give an update on its vaccine plans later this week. Leading flu vaccine makers include Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA), Novartis (NOVN.VX), Baxter (BAX.N), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and Solvay (SOLB.BR).
- In this video, Dr. Joe Bresee with the CDC Influenza Division describes swine flu - its signs and symptoms, how it's transmitted, medicines to treat it, steps people can take to protect themselves from it, and what people should do if they become ill.
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-This podcast discusses the use of antiviral drugs for treating and preventing the H1N1 flu virus.
