Monday, September 14, 2009

President Obama increase tire tariff from China.- May cause Trade war from China.

The prospect of a trade war with China fueled fears of wider fallout Monday, rattling bond markets and prompting many economists to criticize President Obama's decision to slap import tariffs on Chinese-made tires.

Traders fretted that the 35 percent tariffs might prompt China to send a sign of disapproval by paring purchases of U.S. government bonds. And a chorus of economists and climate activists fretted that the president's action might undercut U.S.-China climate talks and poison relations just two weeks before the summit of the Group of 20 major economies to be held in Pittsburgh.

Moreover, economists argued that it would all be for nothing; they said tariffs on Chinese tires would probably boost U.S. imports from countries like Poland and Mexico and do little to help the American steelworkers whose union brought the trade action in the first place.

Obama said Monday on CNBC that the tariffs, which were announced late Friday night, were necessary to maintain the "credibility" of trade agreements. "I'm not surprised that China is upset about it, but keep in mind, we have a huge economic relationship with China," he said.

China's commerce minister, Chen Deming, called Obama's action an "abuse" of trade provisions and said it "sends the wrong signal to the world." China said it would look into punitive measures against U.S. exports of auto and poultry parts.

"I think it's a terrible message in the run-up to the G-20, and we are all very concerned about the escalation of protectionist measures," said Uri Dadush, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and long-time international trade director at the World Bank.

The Obama administration also said it was not worried. "We do not expect that it will have an impact on the broader relationship," said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. He said that there had been a "robust effort" by the administration to negotiate with China for a settlement on tires before imposing import tariffs. He asserted that U.S. imports of Chinese tires, which more than tripled since 2004, clearly met the test for tariffs aimed at reducing "surges" in imports.

But when asked about whether the United States would simply import from other nations, he conceded that "it is hard to predict the impact with specificity."

"A healthy economy in the 21st century also depends on our ability to buy and sell goods in markets across the globe. And make no mistake, this administration is committed to pursuing expanded trade and new trade agreements," Obama said in a speech Monday in New York's financial district.

Thea Lee, an economist and policy director for the AFL-CIO, said the concern over an incipient trade war was overblown and called China's reaction "blustering."

"The Chinese government is trying to raise the rhetoric and scare off the U.S. We should not be scared off," she said. "We are within our rights. . . . It's not the beginning of a trade war."

From 2004 to last year, the number of Chinese tires imported in the United States more than tripled and their share of the U.S. market rose from 5 percent to 17 percent. Over the same period, the share of the U.S. market served by U.S. factories declined by a corresponding amount. More than 5,000 U.S. jobs were lost.

Opponents of the tariff say the U.S. industry's shrinkage is unrelated to the surge in Chinese imports. U.S. manufacturers, they say, have strategically moved into pricier, more profitable tires, shifting production of cheaper tires overseas. Yao Jian, a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman, said, "Four U.S. companies have tire production operations in China and account for two-thirds of exports to the U.S. The tariffs will have a direct impact on them."

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Under the so-called "421 clause" that China agreed to as part of its bid to gain admission to the World Trade Organization, the United States does not need to prove unfair trade practices.
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